Spooky Halloween Fireballs May Pose A Threat to Earth in 2032 and 2036

Every autumn, the Earth passes through debris trails left by Comet Encke, resulting in the mesmerizing Taurid meteor showers that light up the sky, especially around late October to early November. These are famously known as “Halloween fireballs,” dazzling spectators with bright streaks of light that seem to originate from the constellation Taurus. Most debris consists of small dust and rock particles that burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere. However, recent scientific investigations indicate a possible threat if larger fragments from this stream encounter Earth in the future (Gizmodo).

What Are Taurid Meteor Showers?

The Taurid showers occur twice yearly when Earth passes through debris left by Comet Encke. The first encounter is visible at night in the fall, producing the famed fireballs, and the second during daylight in June, less visible to the naked eye. Every few years, Earth encounters denser clumps of larger meteoroids, causing intensified fireball displays lighting the skies with greater frequency (ScienceDaily).

The Theory of Taurid Resonant Swarm

A significant caution arises from a theoretical cluster within the Taurid stream, called the Taurid resonant swarm (TRS). This cluster consists of larger fragments held together by gravitational resonance with Jupiter, meaning these objects orbit the Sun seven times for every two orbits Jupiter completes. Jupiter’s strong gravitational force potentially corrals the debris into denser groups, increasing the chance of Earth encountering larger chunks of the swarm in specific years—especially 2032 and 2036 (Discover Magazine).

Mark Boslough, lead researcher at the University of New Mexico, notes evidence supporting the swarm’s existence includes historical records of bright fireballs and seismic readings of impacts on the Moon aligning with predicted times when the swarm would pass close by (Phys.org).

Mark Boslough: “The resonant swarm is theoretical, but there is some evidence that a sparse swarm of small objects exists because bright fireballs and seismic signatures of impacts on the moon have been observed at times that the theory has predicted.” (Phys.org)

Possible Risks in 2032 and 2036

If the swarm indeed exists, Earth’s close encounter with it in 2032 and 2036 raises concerns about a heightened risk of impacts by Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) large enough to explode in the atmosphere causing airbursts. These explosions, while they might not strike the surface, could cause significant regional damage similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor that injured thousands in 2013. The new research suggests that the chance of these airburst-sized objects coming through may be greater than previously estimated during those years (Newsweek).

Preparedness and Observation

“If we discover the objects with enough warning time, then we can take measures to reduce or eliminate the risk.” (Discover Magazine)

Fortunately, researchers emphasize that current and upcoming telescope technology, including the new infrared NEO Surveyor telescope, can observe these potential threats ahead of time. This advance warning would allow for strategic responses to minimize potential harm, such as early detection and civil defense measures. Boslough stresses the balance between awareness and alarm, comparing the approach to understanding earthquake and volcanic risks—informative but not panic-inducing (Discover Magazine).

Mark Boslough on planetary defense: “It requires surveys to discover and track NEOs, campaigns to characterize those that are hazardous, modeling efforts to understand and predict impact effects and associated consequences, and mitigation through impact avoidance and/or civil defense.” (Newsweek)

Summary

The Taurid meteor shower is a well-known celestial event, but the possibility of a dense Taurid resonant swarm passing Earth in 2032 and 2036 brings a notable concern about larger meteoroids capable of causing atmospheric airbursts. Continued targeted observations and advancements in detection technology will be critical in monitoring this potential risk and preparing for any eventualities.